1.  Long-term economic and demographic trends continue to favor Florida. By 2010 it has been forecast that Florida will be the third most populated state in the country. Florida’s population is expected to increase about 75 percent by 2030. Florida demonstrates a long history of strong growth. It has been one of the 10 fastest-growing states in the U.S. for each of the past seven decades, and often it has been in the top four, according to census data. Population growth will continue to provide a foundation for other economic growth such as new jobs and growing incomes.  All of which is good for real estate.

2. People continue to move here. It’s estimated that 900 people move here every day. Based on recent trends, Stan Smith, director of UF Bureau of Economic and Business Research, said he expects Florida to add about 300,000 residents a year during the next two to three years unless there is a recession.

3. Five of the top 15 cities in the Milken Institute’s 2007 “Best Performing Cities” survey, which looks at sustainable economic growth, are in Florida, including the No. 1 city, Ocala. A total of 13 Florida cities are in the top 50. 

4. Low unemployment. Almost 120,000 jobs were created in Florida in the year between August 2006 and August 2007.  Florida’s unemployment rate has hovered at or under 4% for a long time; and was 4% in August 2007, according to the latest data available from the U.S. Department of Labor. That not only puts it well below the national unemployment average, it also is the lowest unemployment rate among all ten of the most populous states.

5. Jobs are plentiful, and that trend will continue. A recent study by Bizjournals called “Where the Jobs Are” found that 7 of the hottest 15 job markets are in Florida.

6. Let’s take a look at the weather. If you think the hurricanes we experienced are going to have long-term effects on the Florida real estate market, consider this tidbit from Fortune Magazine.  It recently reported, “Economists and geographers who have studied how natural disasters affect real estate values have generally found there to be no lasting impact.”   Example #1:  When Hurricane Hugo hit Charleston, S. C., home values were actually higher one year later.  Example #2:  That same year, 1989, a huge earthquake made big news in San Francisco, and the same thing happened—house prices went up.

7. Grant Thrall, a professor of what’s called Economic Geography, explains this phenomenon this way—residents move away and home prices fall only when natural disasters start becoming regular occurrences in an area, not when they happen periodically.  And while the hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005 may still be fresh in our minds, the fact is, historically it was a fluke.  Eight storms hit the Florida mainland in those two years.  But if you look back at the 50 years prior, only six Category 3 or higher storms hit the Florida mainland in half a century.

8. Studies show that children raised in homes owned by their families are more likely to stay in school and more likely to graduate high school. They’re also shown to have a higher lifetime annual income.

9. Over the past five years, the average homeowner has seen an increase of 50 percent in value, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Here in Florida, the statewide median home price has shown an increase of 52.5 percent from November 2002 to November 2007, according to FAR records. NAR housing industry analysts project that prices will rise about 2 percent next year, and in coming years, average home price appreciation should return to historical averages of around 6 percent.

Copyright 2008 Florida Association of Realtors